Executive Summary
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The Golden Rule: Your daily budget should be at least 5x your Target CPA (Cost Per Acquisition).
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Lebanon Advantage: CPMs in Lebanon are approx. $3.00 - $5.00, compared to $15.00+ in UAE. Your money goes 3x further.
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Action: Start testing at $30/day per campaign. Scale only when ROAS > 2.5.
Most Lebanese business owners guess their budget. "Let's try $10 a day." This is why they fail. Budgeting is not a guess; it is a reverse-engineered math equation based on your unit economics and the auction dynamics of the platform.
The Reverse Engineering Formula
Don't ask "What should I spend?" Ask "How much do I want to make?" The algorithm needs sufficient data to optimize. If you starve it, it dies.
The Equation
Daily Budget = (Revenue Goal ÷ 30) ÷ Target ROAS
Example: You want $10,000/month revenue. Your Target ROAS is 4.0.
($10,000 ÷ 30) ÷ 4 = $83.33/day
Why 5x CPA Matters
Meta's machine learning requires approximately 50 conversion events per week per ad set to exit the "Learning Phase." If your CPA (Cost Per Acquisition) is $10, and you spend $10/day, you get 1 sale a day (7 per week). You will never exit the learning phase.
The Math: $10 CPA x 50 events / 7 days = $71/day minimum spend for optimal stability.
The Lebanon Market Factor (2025 Data)
Lebanon is a unique ad market in 2025. Because many major global advertisers pulled out during the crisis, the auction is less competitive, creating a massive arbitrage opportunity for local brands.
| Metric | Lebanon | UAE / KSA | USA |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPM (Cost per 1k Impressions) | $3.00 - $5.00 | $12.00 - $18.00 | $25.00+ |
| CTR (Click Through Rate) | 1.5% - 2.5% | 0.8% - 1.2% | 0.9% |
- Lower CPMs: You can reach 1,000 people for ~$4.00. In Dubai, that costs $15.00. This means your "Testing Budget" can be lower in Lebanon.
- Cash Economy: You must account for "Cash on Delivery" (COD) refusal rates. If 20% of orders refuse delivery, your ad budget must account for that waste. We recommend adding a 15% buffer to your CPA targets.
Scenario Analysis: Low vs. High Budget
We often get asked: "Can I start with $5/day?" The honest answer is no. Here is why.
Scenario A: The $5/day Strategy (The Trap)
You spend $150/month. You get 15,000 impressions. You get 150 clicks. You get 1 sale.
Result: You have zero data. You don't know if the ad worked or if it was luck. You cannot scale.
Scenario B: The $30/day Strategy (The Minimum)
You spend $900/month. You get 90,000 impressions. You get 900 clicks. You get 15 sales.
Result: You have statistically significant data. You know which ad brought the sales. You can now double the budget on the winner.
Seasonality Factors in Lebanon
Ad costs are not static. In Lebanon, they fluctuate wildly based on holidays and events.
- Ramadan: CPMs rise by 30-40% due to high competition from food & beverage brands.
- Black Friday (Nov): CPMs double. If you don't have a strong offer, pause your ads.
- Summer (July/Aug): Expats return. Purchasing power increases. This is the best time to scale high-ticket items.
Testing Budget vs. Scaling Budget
Never mix these two. Your Testing Budget (20% of spend) is for buying data. Your Scaling Budget (80% of spend) is for buying revenue.
For a Lebanese e-commerce brand starting out, we recommend:
- Week 1: $30/day (Testing Creatives in ABO). Goal: Find 1 winning creative.
- Week 2: $50/day (Move winner to CBO). Goal: Verify stability.
- Week 3: Uncapped (Scale CBO by 20% every 48 hours as long as ROAS > Break-Even).
Sources & References
- 1. Meta Business Help Center. "About the Learning Phase." (2024).
- 2. Digitopia Internal Data. "Lebanon vs GCC CPM Benchmarks Q4 2024."
- 3. World Bank. "Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2024." (Context on Cash Economy).